Last month, Trump said he plans to sign an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all goods coming from China, Mexico and Canada.
Negotiations have stalled between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the US Maritime Alliance, raising the spectre of a strike upon the expiration of the current contract extension on 15 January—a stopgap measure following a three-day strike in October.
In response, last week saw the NRF spearheading an appeal from various trade groups urging both sides to resume talks. Concurrently, President-elect Trump has voiced his intention to raise tariffs across a broad spectrum after assuming office on 20 January.
NRF supply chain and customs policy vice president Jonathan Gold said: “Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can.
“We hope that both can be avoided, but bringing in cargo early is a prudent step to mitigate the impact on our industry, consumers and the nation’s economy. We call on both parties at the ports to return to the table, get a deal done and avoid a strike. And we call on the incoming administration to use tariffs in a strategic manner rather than a broad-based approach impacting everyday consumer goods.”
While figures for November have yet to be disclosed, projections estimate that ports handled approximately 2.17 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) during that month—a robust year-over-year rise of 14.4%, according to the Global Port Tracker report jointly published by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
December is predicted at 2.14 million TEUs, marking a 14.3% increase year-over-year.
In October this year, the Global Port Tracker report detailed that US ports managed 2.25 million TEUs—with data from the Port of Miami pending, which represented a slight decrease from September but a 9.3% increase year-over-year.
These figures suggest that 2024 could close at 25.6 million TEUs, which would be a 14.8% increase from 2023. This projection has been adjusted upward following the October strike and November elections; prior estimates had placed November at 1.91 million TEUs and December at 1.88 million TEUs, with an annual total of 24.9 million TEUs for 2024.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said: “Prospects of reaching a quick agreement on the key sticking point of automation are not looking good.
“The window to frontload goods on vessels arriving before a potential strike is quickly closing. Then there are issues as President-elect Trump promises to increase tariffs when he takes office. It is not clear whether this will actually take effect immediately or whether it will take time to implement the tariffs, but shippers are moving up as much cargo as they can before then.”
For January 2025, forecasts indicate 2.2 million TEUs—a 12% year-over-year growth; February is projected at 1.87 million TEUs, a slight decline due to Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia; March is expected at 2.17 million TEUs, a 12.7% increase; and April at 2.15 million TEUs—up by 6.6%.
