The Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, rose by 0.74% month-over-month in October after adjusting for seasonal fluctuations. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, sales increased 4.13%.
This marked a clear rebound from September, when sales decreased 0.32% month-over-month but risen by just 0.55% YoY. The slower pace of sales in September had been influenced by factors such as geopolitical tensions, a strike at East and Gulf Coast ports, and the expiration of student loan relief programs.
For clothing stores specifically, sales were down 0.57% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 8.56% year over year unadjusted.
"Healthy spending resumed in October as consumers continued to benefit from this year's job gains and higher wages. Inflation is mostly limited to services at this point and prices for some retail goods are actually falling. October sales have set the stage for a good start to the holiday shopping season," commented NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay.
The Retail Monitor's calculation of core retail sales, which excludes restaurants as well as automobile dealers and gasoline stations, showed an even stronger performance with a 0.83% month-over-month increase and a 4.59% rise compared to last year.
This growth outpaced September's figures, which saw a monthly decline of 0.28% and only a 0.94% year-over-year increase.
The YoY growth for total sales was the highest since November 2023 (4.24%), while core sales saw their largest increase since August 2023 (4.76%).
For the first ten months of 2024, total sales were up by 2.13% yearly, with core sales rising by 2.42%.
Sales were up across seven of nine retail categories compared to the previous year, with the biggest gains in online sales, clothing and accessories, and health and personal care stores. Monthly sales were also positive in seven categories.
Online and other non-store sales surged by 1.84% month over month and up 19.38% YoY and general merchandise stores experienced modest growth at 0.05% month over month but jumped by 5.51% on an annual basis.
Recently, the NRF anticipated ‘steady’ retail sales growth for the winter holiday season, despite mixed signals in recent economic data.
