The Census Bureau reported that retail sales in March climbed by 1.4% seasonally adjusted from the previous month and saw a 4.6% unadjusted increase compared to the same period last year.
This performance outpaced February's modest gains of 0.2% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year.
National Retail Federation (NRF) chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said: “Retail sales strengthened in March, supported by continued solid growth in income, lower energy costs and bigger-than-usual tax refunds that all helped support household budgets.
“However, there is no question that the consumer is not feeling great given the confusion of policy announcements from Washington. On-again, off-again rising tariffs and resulting turmoil in the stock market and world economy are clearly impacting consumer concerns about higher prices and future consumer spending growth.”
Core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and eateries, were up by 0.6% seasonally adjusted from the prior month and rose by 3.4% unadjusted year-over-year.
On a three-month moving average, core sales ascended by 2.6% compared to the previous year.
These findings align with NRF's projection that core retail sales will expand by 2.7% to 3.7% in 2025 relative to 2024.
Recently, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, revealed that core retail sales in March increased by 0.4% seasonally adjusted from the preceding month and escalated by 5.07% unadjusted year-over-year.
This contrasted with February's slight decline of 0.22% month-over-month and a rise of 4.11% year-over-year.
The data from the Census and Retail Monitor capture consumer expenditure following the declaration of tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico by US President Donald Trump in February.
These figures precede the announcement made on 2 April, where he proposed a minimum tariff of 10% on all US trading partners and introduced extensive "reciprocal" tariffs targeting numerous countries.
Although these reciprocal tariffs are on hold for a period of 90 days, there have been subsequent tariff declarations, leaving the trade environment in a state of continual change.
An NRF survey conducted in March revealed that nearly half of consumers (46%) were pre-emptively purchasing appliances, clothing, and other goods in anticipation of higher prices due to tariffs.
Hackett Associates and NRF recently forecasted a 20% drop in US import cargo volumes in the second half of 2025 (H2 2025) just before the President Donald Trump administration announced a 90-day pause on "reciprocal" tariffs with the exception of China.
