NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold believes this is a "critical time" as retailers prepare for the all-important holiday season, and every port in the country needs to be working at full capacity.

"Many retailers have brought cargo in early and shifted to alternate ports as a precaution, but it is vital that labour and management at the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports actually sit down at the negotiating table and bargain in good faith for a new contract so we can avoid a disruption of any kind when their contract expires. A strike would be another blow to the supply chain as it continues to face challenges, and to the nation’s economy at a time when inflation is finally coming down and the Fed is poised to lower interest rates."

The contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance covering East and Gulf Coast ports is set to expire on September 30. NRF pointed out that ILA has continued to threaten to strike if a new contract is not reached by then.

Last week, NRF issued a second call for ILA and the United States Maritime Alliance to resume contract negotiations, with NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay expressing concerns that a potential strike "would significantly impact retailers, consumers and the economy."

Meanwhile, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett argued that import levels are being impacted by concerns about the potential East and Gulf Coast port strike, causing some cargo owners to bring forward shipments, bumping up June-through-September imports.

Hackett said: "In addition, some importers are weighing the decision to bring forward some goods, particularly from China, that could be impacted by rising tariffs following the election."

US import cargo figures

The Global Port Tracker, produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the major US ports. In July, the latest month for which final numbers are available, ports handled 2.32 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units, marking an 8.1% increase from June and a 21% year-over-year rise, setting a new record for July.

While August numbers are yet to be reported, Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.37 million TEU, up 20.9% year-over-year—the highest level since the record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022.

Forecasts for the rest of the year include 2.31 million TEU in September (up 14% year-over-year), 2.08 million in October (up 1.3%), 1.92 million in November (up 1.6%), and 1.89 million in December (up 0.9%).

The first half of 2024 totalled 12.1 million TEU, a 14.8% increase from the same period in 2023. NRF said if the forecasts stand correct, 2024 will have seen seven months of import levels at or above 2 million TEU, the longest since 19 months through September 2022. January 2025 is projected at 1.96 million TEU, down 0.3% year over year.