The study title ‘Hot Air: How will fashion adapt to accelerating climate change?’ examined temperature and climate trends in Dhaka, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Phnom Penh, and Karachi over the past two decades. The institute's research monitors how heat and flooding events affect the fashion industry's production sites and its workforce.
Measuring extreme weather impacts
The findings indicate a 42% surge in days exceeding the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) threshold of 30.5°C between 2020-2024 compared to 2005-2009. This threshold is recognised by the International Labour Organization as the point where garment workers should balance work with equal rest time hourly to avoid unsafe body temperature levels.
Additionally, for each degree increase above a WBGT of 25°C, there is an average productivity drop of 1.5% for moderate effort manufacturing tasks.
Data spanning from 2005 to 2024 also shows an increase in both the frequency and duration of heatwaves, defined as three or more consecutive days with maximum outdoor WBGTs surpassing 30.5°C. The analysis further notes a trend towards more intense heavy rainfall events across these cities.
The implications of increased heat stress and flooding are profound for the apparel industry, affecting worker health, production pace, and infrastructure.
A previous study by Cornell ILR and Schroders projected that key apparel exporting nations could lose up to $65bn in export revenue by 2030 due to these climatic challenges.
Instances such as school closures due to April heatwaves in Bangladesh and delayed school openings following floods in Vietnam in August underscore the immediate effects on local communities.
Beyond the five centres
Expanding beyond the primary five hubs, researchers analysed daily maximum temperatures at 23 production centres and discovered a minimum 10% rise in high-heat days above 35°C for most hubs (74%). Even luxury textile production in Prato, Italy has not been spared from this trend.
Additionally, increased flood risks were identified in Yangon, Jakarta, and Dongguan due to heightened rainfall patterns over two decades.
The research underscores the urgency for adaptive measures and worker protections. It also points out potential liabilities for brands under new Due Diligence laws regarding worker harm.
A collaborative study with Schroders in 2023 predicted economic impacts to the fashion sector from extreme weather by modelling scenarios for 2030 and 2050.
Without adaptation efforts, nominal earnings could drop by 22% by 2030 for Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, and Vietnam—with nearly one million jobs not materialising. By 2050, losses could escalate to 68% with eight million fewer jobs.
For workers, manufacturers, buyers, investors, and governments alike, there is a clear incentive for urgent adaptation investments which can mitigate losses and offer benefits, the report notes.
Immediate actions include adhering to national laws on workplace standards where they exist or establishing acceptable WBGT levels where they do not. Moreover, sharing real-time data on heat and humidity within production areas can inform productivity tracking against various WBGTs—aiding cost-benefit analyses for investments in cooling systems or flood defences.
Cornell University’s Global Labor Institute executive director Jason Judd said: "Extreme heat and flooding are health hazards for tens of millions of garment workers and material risks to the fashion industry. Adaptation investments to protect workers and supply chains are urgently needed alongside decarbonisation efforts. And adaptation’s physical investments must go hand-in-hand with robust social investments. One without the other won’t work. For example, living wages that allow workers and their families to cope with lost work days, the rising costs of electricity bills, food, and climate-related medical bills are essential. And the industry—from employers to brands to their investors and lenders—need clear, enforceable climate labour requirements.
“These are needed for the industry to adapt to climate breakdown and for major brands and retailers to meet their obligations to workers under new CSDDD rules.”
