With just a few months before voters head to the polls in November, President Biden’s announcement has turned the US election on its head and a repeat of 2020’s Biden/Trump presidential race is no longer on the cards.
Writing on X (formerly known as Twitter), Biden said he believed it was “in the best interests of [the] party and the country” for him to stand down and focus on fulfilling his duties as president for the remainder of his term.
Shortly after his announcement, Biden issued another statement endorsing his vice president Kamala Harris as his replacement Democratic candidate for the presidency.
The Associated Press reports vice president Harris has enough support from Democratic delegates to become the party's nominee in the upcoming election.
She said in a statement: "Over the next few months, I'll be traveling across the country talking to Americans about everything on the line. I fully intend to unite our party and our nation, and defeat Donald Trump."
Immediate impact for apparel sector
GlobalData retail analyst Neil Saunders told Just Style exclusively that while there is unlikely to be any immediate impact on the apparel sector, if vice president Harris secures the Democratic nomination we might see some change in policies on apparel.
However, he was quick to add: "We need to see how the vice president’s policy positions shape up and how a presidency with her at the head would differ from the current administration.”
Gherzi Textil Organization partner Bob Antoshak told Just Style Biden’s announcement has raised “many questions” around policy for the apparel sector.
But, he noted with Harris as the likely replacement there are unlikely to be many sweeping changes in policy.
Harris' record on trade
Antoshak explained vice president Harris’ previous record under the Biden administration offers some insight into her potential priorities as a future president.
He said: “Even though some see Harris as a California ideologue, her record suggests otherwise. For instance, she brought groups together throughout the Caribbean region to form the Partnership for Central America (CTP) to help coordinate regional investment and job creation, focusing in particular on the region’s apparel industry. Whereas the Biden administration maintained Section 301 tariffs on China and a willingness to manage trade, the CTP was a notable exception.”
Apparel companies supporting the CTP include Colombia Sportswear Company, which committed to purchasing up to $200m in products, creating more than 6,900 jobs in the region over five years.
"CTP is an innovative, pragmatic solution led by Harris to address many of the region’s economic and social ills. Yet Trump will undoubtedly attack Harris’s assessment of the initiative’s effectiveness. The initiative was intended to create regional jobs, help keep people in their home countries working, and stem the immigration flow into the US as illegal immigration remains a hot-button topic this election cycle.
"However, Harris’s policy and those of other possible challengers for the Democratic presidential nomination will remain fluid. New positions still need to be fleshed out — and a formal party platform approved at next month’s convention."
Antoshak added that it is still "too early to know for sure," whether or not Harris would take a pragmatic approach to trade. However he added: "For now, though, here’s the word: watch developments closely."
Increasing uncertainty
Dr Sheng Lu, professor of apparel studies at the University of Delaware told Just Style Biden's departure from the presidential race means the apparel sector may be preparing for a potential second term with ex-president Donald Trump.
"Notably, the newly released Grand Old Party (Republican Party) platform proposes several policy actions that may significantly impact fashion companies’ sourcing, supply chain and business operations. These actions include supporting 'baseline tariffs on foreign-made goods,' 'revoking China's Most Favoured Nation status,' and 'strengthening Buy American and Hire American policies'", he explained.
"If implemented, these policies could substantially increase US fashion companies’ tariff burdens, trigger retaliatory trade actions from US trading partners, and escalate geopolitical tensions further."
Dr Lu added that as Biden’s vice president, Harris may continue his 'worker-centred' trade policy if elected. He added that she may "advocate for a more significant role of trade in addressing non-economic issues" such as climate change, environmental protection and human rights.
"However, Harris voted against the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA), even though Biden supported the agreement. It is highly unlikely that Harris would pursue any new conventional free trade agreements to improve market access for US companies and reduce trade barriers facing fashion companies directly," Dr Lu stated.
"Given the growing uncertainty and an increasingly challenging business environment, fashion companies may continue to diversify their sourcing base to mitigate various sourcing risks as effectively as possible."
Steve Lamar, president and CEO at the American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA) told Just Style that whatever the outcome of the upcoming election it could be highly consequential.
He said: "It is imperative that our future leaders consult closely with our industry so we can jointly fashion new, smart, and enforceable trade policies that can literally move the needle in forging resilient, diverse, and sustainable supply chains."
