UK: New Model Forecasts Technical Textile Markets

A computer model that makes annual forecasts of world end-use consumption of technical textiles and nonwovens by product type, application, country and region has been developed by textile strategy and marketing consultant David Rigby Associates (DRA). The model can also be used to calculate the required inputs of materials and machine time to meet these forecast demands. It should be of most use to the producers of fibres, yarns, fabrics, chemicals and machinery. They often find it difficult to track their thousands of ultimate end-uses. Statistics are not usually available, and the products of interest often lose their identity as they are combined downstream with other materials. DRA will initially use the forecasts in consulting projects with clients. The model itself will also be used with clients to answer 'what if' questions and to produce alternative scenarios of future markets, using clients' own input data where appropriate. Eventually, some forecasts will be made more widely available, possibly on the Internet, and clients will be able to download the model to carry out calculations using their own proprietary data. The model makes forecasts of the end-use consumption of technical textiles by product type for each target country. It uses past and forecast values of up to 25 demographic, economic and industrial drivers of demand covering the many end-use sectors. These include population, GDP per head, car production, medical expenditure, power generation, construction output etc. The calculations of the inputs of materials and machine time required to meet forecast end-use volumes are based on DRA market research.