This growth would result in total retail sales reaching somewhere between $5.42tn and $5.48tn.
The forecast was presented at the NRF’s fifth annual State of Retail & the Consumer event, which focuses on examining the current status of consumers and the retail sector in the US.
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NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said: “Overall, the economy has shown continued momentum so far in 2025 — bolstered by low unemployment and real wage gains — however, significant policy uncertainty is weighing on consumer and business confidence.
“Still, serving customers will remain retailers’ top priority no matter what the economic environment.”
The overall sales figures include non-store and online sales, which are projected to experience a growth of 7% to 9%, reaching between $1.57tn and $1.6tn.
This follows an 8.1% growth in such sales the previous year, culminating in $1.47tn.
The NRF has also revised its expectations for gross domestic product growth in 2025, predicting a slight decrease to just below 2%, down from the 2.8% seen in 2024 and lower than recent years’ trends.
NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said: “Any way you look at it, a lot is riding on the consumer. While we do expect slower growth, consumer fundamentals remain intact, supported by low unemployment, slower but steady income growth, and solid household finances. Consumer spending is not unravelling.”
Kleinhenz expects no immediate reduction in consumer spending due to the decline in consumer confidence amidst inflation concerns and tariff anxiety.
“It’s the hard data on employment, income and tariff-induced inflation — not consumer sentiment — that supports our view of a slower trajectory for consumer spending,” Kleinhenz remarked.
With tariffs in place, NRF expects personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation to stay around the current rate of 2.5% throughout 2025. Household financial health seems robust overall, with only slight increases in delinquencies for auto loans and credit card payments, staying consistent with pre-pandemic levels.
NRF methodology for forecasting excludes automobile dealerships, gas stations, and restaurants to concentrate on core retail segments.
This forecast for 2025 is set against the backdrop of a 3.6% annual sales growth in 2024, totalling $5.29tn, aligning with the decade’s pre-pandemic average growth rate of 3.6%.
Recent reports from the US Census Bureau indicated a 0.2% surge in overall retail sales for February 2025 when adjusted seasonally from January, with a more significant unadjusted YoY rise of 3.1%.
January 2025 saw a seasonally adjusted decrease of 0.9% compared to December 2024 but experienced an unadjusted YoY increase of 4.2%, totalling $723.9bn in sales.
