This import surge aligns with NRF’s forecast of 2.5% to 3.5% growth in core retail sales for 2024 compared to 2023. Credit: Shutterstock.

According to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, monthly inbound cargo volume at major US container ports is projected to reach “near-record” levels this month as retailers rush to import merchandise ahead of a potential strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports.

The surge comes as contract negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance have stalled, with the current agreement set to expire on 30 September.

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The ILA has threatened to strike if a new contract is not reached by then.

“Retailers are concerned by the possibility of a strike at ports on the East and Gulf coasts,” said NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. “Many retailers have taken precautions including earlier shipping and shifting cargo to West Coast ports.”

The potential strike compounds existing supply chain challenges, including ongoing attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, which have led to increased shipping times, costs, equipment shortages, and congestion in Asian ports.

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NRF has continued to urge the parties to return to the table to continue negotiations as rising freight rates have prompted importers to ship earlier.

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“We hope to see both sides resolve this issue before the current contract expires because retailers and the economy cannot afford to see a prolonged strike,” added Gold.

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett noted: “Importers are continuing to grow their inventories and are shifting cargo to the West Coast as a precaution against potential labour disruptions. We calculate that the shift has pushed the West Coast share of cargo we track to above 50% for the first time in over three years.”

This import surge aligns with NRF’s forecast of 2.5% to 3.5% growth in core retail sales for 2024 compared to 2023.

Key findings from the Global Port Tracker report include:

  • June saw US ports handle 2.16m Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs), up 3.6% from May and 17.7% year-over-year
  • July is projected to reach 2.34m TEUs, a 22.1% increase year-over-year and the highest level since May 2022’s record of 2.4m TEUs
  • August is forecast to match July’s 2.34m TEUs, up 19.2% from the previous year
  • September is forecast at 2.16m TEU, up 6.5% year over year
  • October is predicted to reach 2.09m TEU, up 1.7%
  • November at 1.98m TEU, up 4.4%
  • December is forecast to reach 1.94m TEU, up 3.5%
  • Total 2024 imports are projected to reach 24.9m TEUs, a 12.1% increase from 2023.

US container ports reported a 3% increase in import cargo volumes in May despite high shipping rates, unresolved port labour negotiations and ongoing Red Sea disruptions. However, an industry expert warned at the time “risks to global trade growth continue to increase.”