The NRF’s definition of core retail sales, excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants. Credit: Sakeza/Shutterstock.

In October, overall US retail sales rose by 0.4% from the previous month, seasonally adjusted, and increased 2.8% year-over-year unadjusted.  

In comparison, September saw a 0.8% monthly rise and 2% year-over-year (YoY) growth. 

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The NRF’s definition of core retail sales, which excludes sectors such as automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants, remained flat on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis in October but showed an increase of 5.4% YoY without adjustments.  

Jack Kleinhenz said: “October’s pickup in retail sales shows a healthy pace of spending as many consumers got an early start on holiday shopping. 

“October sales were a good early step forward into the holiday shopping season, which is now fully underway. Falling energy prices have likely provided extra dollars for household spending on retail merchandise.” 

Over the first ten months of the year, core sales rose by 3.5% compared to the same period last year, aligning with NRF’s projection for 2024, which predicts retail sales growth between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023 levels. 

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For the upcoming holiday season in November and December, NRF anticipates an increase in sales within the same range of 2.5% to 3.5% compared to last year.  

A survey conducted by NRF revealed that 45% of holiday shoppers intended to start their shopping before November. 

Additionally, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, supported by Affinity Solutions, reported earlier this week that core retail sales experienced a monthly increase of 0.83% in October and a yearly rise of 4.59%.  

Unlike the Census Bureau’s survey-based data, the Retail Monitor uses anonymised credit and debit card transaction data from Affinity Solutions, offering real-time, accurate insights without the need for later revisions. 

The YoY increase in total sales was the highest since 4.24% in November 2023, while the YoY increase in core sales was the largest since 4.76% in August 2023.  

This contrasts with September’s figures, which showed a monthly decline of 0.28% but a yearly increase of 0.94%. 

Clothing sales defied the trend in September, leading nine retail categories with a 1.06% month-over-month increase and a 10.31% YoY rise (unadjusted).