Hackett Associates forecasts a seven-month stretch of import levels exceeding 2 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) – a milestone reached only twice since October 2022. Credit: Shutterstock

In the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy, attributed the anticipated spike in US cargo imports to sustained consumer spending and retailers replenishing inventories ahead of the peak shipping season.

“The high level of imports expected over the next several months is an encouraging sign that retailers are confident in strong sales throughout the remainder of the year,” said Gold. “Unfortunately, retailers are also facing supply chain challenges again, this time with congestion at overseas ports that are affecting operations and shipping rates.”

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Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates forecasts a seven-month stretch of US cargo import levels exceeding 2 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) – a milestone reached only twice since October 2022 – partly due to shifts in the annual “peak season” for shipping.

“Imports of containerised goods at US ports are booming, with particularly strong growth on the West Coast,” Hackett explained. “In the last couple of years, we have witnessed a flattened peak season that has stretched out the volume of imports over extra months versus the strong, consolidated surge seen in the past.”

He cited factors such as retailers restocking after strong post-pandemic sales, efforts to beat anticipated tariff increases on Chinese goods in August, and ensuring sufficient inventories to meet robust consumer demand for the holiday season.

US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.02 million TEU – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in April, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 4.6% from March and up 13.2% year over year and was the highest number since 2.06 million TEU last October.

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While May’s numbers are yet to be reported, projections indicate a rise to 2.09 million TEU, up 8.3% year-over-year and the highest level since August 2022.

June is forecast to surpass 2.11 million TEU, a 15.2% year-over-year increase, with July, August, and September also projected to maintain elevated import volumes.

The NRF expects the first half of 2024 to total 12.1 million TEU, up 15% from the same period last year, as the organisation forecasts core retail sales growth of 2.5% to 3.5% over 2023 levels.

According to the latest figures from the United States Office of Textile and Apparel (OTEXA) US apparel imports from Ethiopia dropped sharply by almost 40% between April 2023 and April 2024.